A Monte Carlo simulation indicates a 45% chance of a 4-month delay in prototype development. Where would this be located on the risk matrix?

A Monte Carlo simulation indicates a 45% chance of a 4-month delay in prototype development. Where would this be located on the risk matrix?

• A. L = 1; C = 2
• B. L = 3; C = 4
• C. L = 4; C = 1
• D. L = 2; C = 5

Answer: (B)

A risk matrix places each risk by its likelihood (probability) and its consequence (impact). A 45% chance is a moderate likelihood, which maps to level 3. A 4-month delay is a substantial schedule impact, corresponding to consequence level 4. So the risk sits at likelihood 3 and consequence 4. The other coordinate pairs would require either a different probability for the listed likelihood level or a different impact for a 4-month delay, so they don’t fit this scenario.

A risk matrix places each risk by its likelihood (probability) and its consequence (impact). A 45% chance is a moderate likelihood, which maps to level 3. A 4-month delay is a substantial schedule impact, corresponding to consequence level 4. So the risk sits at likelihood 3 and consequence 4. The other coordinate pairs would require either a different probability for the listed likelihood level or a different impact for a 4-month delay, so they don’t fit this scenario.